Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Crude Oil Extends Tuesday's Decline In Overnight Trading


May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.63.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.79

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.63
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90

First support is the overnight low crossing at 47.37
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26

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10:30 AM ET. Apr 3...US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....................Crude Oil Stocks (previous 359.4M)

.....................Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.84M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (previous 216.79M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.22M)

.....................Distillate Stocks (previous 144.1M)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +221K)

.....................Refinery Usage (previous 81.7%)


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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Monday's rally and is trading above resistance marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would confirm that the c-wave of an a-b-c correction off March's low is underway.

If June renews the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight and trading below initial support marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 816.17 signaling that a short term top has been posted.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 797.93 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 797.93.
Second support is last week's low crossing at 775.70.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 4.40 points. at 809.60 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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