Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Will Equities Bring Oil Down?


May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline.

However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's daily pivot point is 845, weekly pivot is 837.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 833.84.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 839.20 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight and is poised to extend Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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10:30 AM ET. Apr 10..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 361M)

.....Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.1M; previous +1.6M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.4M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -500K; previous +656K)

.....Distillate Stocks (previous 140.7M)

.....Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -3.3M)

.....Refinery Usage (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)

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