Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Crude Oil Trading Lower As Dollar Gains Strength

July crude oil was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.24

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 ay moving average crossing at 64.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.77
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.19

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55

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July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.100. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm.

If July extends Monday's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.902 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Wednesday pivot point for natural gas is 4.16

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.28
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.69

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.90
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.50

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates above January's high crossing at 937.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Day traders will be looking for bullish set ups above the pivot point at 942. We are looking the first congestion of sellers being at 953 and major selling taking place at 960. If we are break and cross the 942 pivot we will see traders start taking profits at 926 with a possibility of a full gap fill down to 921.75.

If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 942

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

The June S&P 500 Index was down 5.00 points. at 937.60 as of 6:06 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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