Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Lower Signaling Short Term Top Has Been Posted


Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.75 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends today's decline, the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.74 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.74 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 72.84
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is today's low crossing at 68.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.74

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to light profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of its recent gains but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends this rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.67 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.51
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.81

First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.88
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.67

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Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last week's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.459 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.763 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If September renews the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.76
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 4.16

First support is today's low crossing at 3.53
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.46

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