Friday, August 7, 2009

Crude Oil Post Downside Reversal on U.S. Dollar Strength


Crude oil posted a downside reversal due to profit taking on Friday as consolidated some of this week's gains. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 72.84
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.28
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.77

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Natural gas closed lower on Friday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.756 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.459 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.26

First support is today's low crossing at 3.66
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.46

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