Sunday, September 20, 2009

Crude's Rally Derailed from Fundamentals Again


Strength in stock markets and decline in USD were the major reasons for the rises in commodities. In the US, Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed +2.2% to settle at 9820 while S&P 500 Index surged +2.6% to 1068.3 as driven by better-than-expected housing market (housing starts), employment situation (jobless claims) and improvements in manufacturing activities (Empire State and Philly Fed Index). The dollar weakened further with every rebound being treated an opportunity to sell as investors' risk appetite increases. In the coming week, the FOMC meeting will be market's focus. While the Fed will likely announce to keep its policy rate at 0-0.25% for an extended period of time, it may talk more about plans for exiting from the current stimulus policies.

Crude Oil
Crude oil price retreated to -0.6% to settle 72.04 Friday, the second consecutive day of fall as USD recovered after substantially weakened against major currencies in the past week. On weekly basis, the October contract reached 73.16 the highest and gained +4%. Recent rally in crude oil has been determined by movements in USD and stock markets, rather than fundamentals....Read the entire article

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