Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil edged higher last week but momentum is so far quite unconvincing. Nevertheless, further rise is still in favor as long as 68.16 support holds. Break of 73.16 resistance will confirm that fall from 75.0 has completed at 65.05 already. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that medium term rally is still in progress for another high above 75.0 before completion. On the downside, below 68.16 will suggest that rebound from 65.05 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term term outlook is quite mixed so far with crude oil still struggling around 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. The bearish case is still slightly in favor with 73.16 resistance intact. That is, medium term rebound from 44.2 has completed at 75.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. Break of 65.05 support will solidify this case and target 58.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 75.0 at 59.03) for confirmation. However, break of 73.16 will in turn favor the case that rise from 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 75.0. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen in 76.77/90.24 fibonacci.....Entire article and charts!