Friday, December 18, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Signaling Higher Prices Are Possible Near Term


Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it extends this week's rally. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish with this week's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.27 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.27
Second resistance is today's high crossing at 74.69

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.62
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.058 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.926
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.330
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.058

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.14 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.02
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.14


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