Sunday, May 31, 2009

Have You Missed The Move In Crude?

Have you missed the move in crude oil? Here's a quick score card on ticker DXO. You be the judge.

Feel free to leave a comment to let our readers know where you think crude is headed.

MACD
DXO is trading above its 200 minute moving average. This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend. There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.

Bollinger Bands
DXO is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

Parabolic SAR
Today, DXO closed above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 4.12.

Williams %R
According to the %R which is currently at -6.67% and above the critical level of -20, DXO may be overbought. While a stock that is overbought may continue to rally, investors should be especially careful when DXO begins to lose strength and the %R dips below -20.

Directional Movement Index
The +DI line is above the -DI line and the ADX is greater than 20. This is a bullish signal that indicates the stock is in a confirmed uptrend.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


~

Artic May Hold More Undiscovered Oil

Is the Artic the new frontier for crude oil discoveries. The Heritage Foundation's Ben Lieberman talks about the possibilty of the Artic holding 40-160 billion dollars worth of crude oil beneath the polar ice caps.



Crude Oil Market Winners For This Week

~~~~Company~~~~~~~~~Friday's Close~~~~~%Gain Based on 2 Days
1. Hess Corporation.......65.65...................6.96..........
2. Marathon Oil............31.01...................6.05..........
3. Husky Energy...........33.89...................5.25..........
4. Petro-Canada...........48.49...................4.82..........
5. Suncor...................34.82...................4.75..........

Current Futures Prices Click Here

Sunday Morning Reading

"China to Raise Gasoline, Diesel Prices 6-7%" [Reuters]

"Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop" [Bloomberg]

"Tullow, Heritage Face Tough Choices on Uganda Oil Development" [Rigzone]

"Oil Reserves Could Thaw U.S.- Cuba Tie" [Philly .Com]

"Iran Encourages Japanese Companies To Invest in Oil Sector" [Tehran Times]

"Zoellick Warns Stimulus ‘Sugar High’ Won’t Stem Unemployment" [Bloomberg]

"Lower Highs... Topping or bull flag?" [xtrends]

"Edison Sees Difficulties Boosting Renewable Energy" [Bloomberg]

Register for all the latest Trader's Blog postings Today. Click Here

Saturday, May 30, 2009

The Price of Oil Companies vs. Crude Oil, Why The Disconnect?


There seems to be a lot of traders baffled by the disconnect between the rising price of oil as a commodity and the price action in the oil companies themselves. While the oil companies have enjoyed the recent rally in crude oil they have not had the same percentage of gains that crude oil has. I don't see it as that big of a mystery.

Institutional buyers and hedge funds have for years used the oil market and commodities in general as their own little playground. And their being hesitant to ramp up the oil companies along with the price of crude says more to me about where the likes of Goldman Sachs and various mutual funds see [plan] on this market going.

Sure, a lot of smart people see crude easily trading up to $70, but then what. There is absolutely nothing to keep us trading at that range and believe it or not the dollar will not continue straight down, nothing does. What isn't definite is the direction of the SP 500. I am personally leaning towards the bearish side, breaking below 875. And if we do crude will retrace it's steps quickly.

Keep your stops tight, don't be the only one left holding crude at $70 dollars.


Check Current Futures Prices Click Here


~

Friday, May 29, 2009

Crude Oil Extends The Spring Rally, Closes Higher


July crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

But crude oil bulls should not let this go to their heads. Nothing goes straight up for long and the dollar will correct, if only temporarily, and crude will correct along side of it. The word on the street seems to be 68.49 [$70] is doable near term, don't get caught being the only one holding the crude oil bag beyond that.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.88 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 66.47
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.86
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.88

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday ending a four day short covering rally and closed below the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.98

First support is today's low crossing at 79.27
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.5

For Current Futures Prices Click Here

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

Futures ALERT Video Click Here

Not Mixing with Rest of Economy, Oil Floats Higher


"Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop"
Crude oil rose, capping its biggest monthly gain in a decade, as the dollar weakened against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities. Oil climbed above $66 a barrel to a six-month high as the dollar weakened beyond $1.41 against the euro for the first time this year, making raw materials such as oil and gold an attractive alternative investment. Prices also gained as U.S., and Asian indicators pointed to a global economic recovery. “The devaluation of the dollar is leading to the revaluation of energy and commodities.....Complete Story

"Not Mixing with Rest of Economy, Oil Floats Higher"
The price of crude oil once again seems to be defying the economic forces of gravity.
There's plenty of evidence to suggest prices should be falling. In industrialized countries, storage tanks are overflowing, with enough supplies to cover 62 days of use, about 10 days more than usual. Economic weakness continues to depress world demand, which is on track to fall for the second consecutive year. And oil producing countries, while restraining output, are adding to production capacity. New Saudi Arabian wells coming on line this year will exceed the entire production capacity of Texas.....Complete Story

"Gasoline Futures May Rally as High as $2.20: Technical Analysis"
Gasoline futures could reach $2.20 this summer if the July-delivery contract clears $1.90 next week, according to technical analysis by Infinitytrading.com. The July contract, which becomes the front-month contract June 1, is poised to close above $1.902 a gallon next week, which represents the upper Bollinger band, said Fain Shaffer, president of Infinitytrading.com, a commodities brokerage in Medford, Oregon. The next objective is $2.0414, Shaffer said. Once above $2.0414, the next resistance level would be $2.1981 a gallon, the 200 period moving average on a monthly chart.....Complete Story

Continued Dollar Weakness Fuels Crude Oil Rally


July crude oil was steady to higher overnight as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

At I am writing crude is trading well above 1st resistance and appears ready to easily trade higher but it's all about the dollar. The dollar is so oversold and any consolidation at all will cause a sharp pullback in crude oil. As long as the SP 500 rallies today crude oil day traders will be buying the dips.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.87 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 64.32

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 66.17
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.85
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.87

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar was sharply lower overnight ending a four-day correction and has broken out below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.74
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99

First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.58
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 923.20 then this month's high crossing at 929.00 are the next upside targets.

For Friday most day trading set ups appear to be bullish. I think most traders will be looking to buy dips anywhere near the daily pivot with a target of 913.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 900

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.60 points. at 911.70 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Hard To Believe, But Crude Oil Bulls Still Have The Near Term Advantage


July crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.18 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 65.44
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.17
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.18

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.11
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.25

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 79.80

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

Barron's Ranks Energy Companies, OPEC Holds Quotas, Tanker Cancellations


"OPEC Holds Production Quotas Steady, Predicting Demand Recovery"
OPEC decided to keep production quotas unchanged a meeting today in Vienna, banking on a recovery in oil demand toward the end of the year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for 40 percent of global crude supply, agreed to maintain production quotas at 24.845 million barrels a day, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said. It’s the second time this year the 12-member group has met without revising that total. “The market is oversupplied, it’s true,” OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri told at a press conference afterwards, saying the group decided against cutting.....Complete Story

"Barron's and Fortune Rankings of Energy Companies"
Barron's newspaper recently released its 2009 Barron's 500 company rankings that had a reasonable representation of energy companies. At about the same time, Fortune magazine published its rankings of the top 500 companies. The two rankings are based on different measures of financial performance. The sharp reversal of fortunes for energy commodities and the stock market during the second half of 2008 had contributed to energy companies not ranking as highly for the latest year, but still demonstrating better.....Complete Story

"Frontline Says Third of Oil Tanker Orders at Risk"
Frontline Ltd., the world’s largest operator of supertankers, said it was the first publicly traded shipping line to cancel contracts for new oil carriers and predicted a third of all orders will be delayed or canceled. The Hamilton, Bermuda-based company said today it canceled $556 million of orders for two supertankers and four suezmaxes, out of a total of 18 contracts. Similar moves by other shipping lines may “emerge in the next few weeks,” Jens Martin Jensen, chief executive officer of its management unit, said by phone. The annulments show other owners “might be able to do something” to.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Bulls Still Have The Technical Advantage


July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 62.97

First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.82
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 60.57
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54

US Energy Dept Oil Inventories 11:00 AM ET.

Crude Oil Stocks...................368.52M
Crude Oil Stocks...(Net Change)....-900K....-2.11M
Gasoline Stocks....................203.95M
Gasoline Stocks...(Net Change).....-2M......-4.34M
Distillate Stocks..................148.13M
Distillate Stocks...[Net Change)...+1.2M....+672K
Refinery Usage.....................82%......81.8%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.28
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

Thursday's pivot point for the SP 500 is 899

First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Higher In The Face Of Higher Dollar


July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.82
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 60.57
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.28
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77


Oil Rises To New Six Month High, Exxon Claims Strategy Built Investor Value, Precision Sees Slow Summer


"Oil Rises to a Six Month High After Saudi Forecasts $75 a Barrel"
Oil rose above $63 a barrel for the first time in six months after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said crude is likely to touch $75 by the end of the year. Asian demand has begun to recover and prices at $75 a barrel will be healthy for economic growth, Ali al-Naimi said today in Vienna, where OPEC will meet this week to discuss production targets. A government report tomorrow is forecast to show that U.S. gasoline supplies fell for a fifth week.....Complete Story

"ExxonMobil's Financial Strength, Strategy Build Value for Investors"
Exxon Mobil Corporation's financial strength and industry leading performance continues to provide shareholders with superior value while delivering energy to fuel economic growth and protecting the environment, the corporation said today at its Annual Meeting of Shareholders. "Despite the volatile economic times, ExxonMobil remains committed to investing in integrated solutions to the energy challenge," said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer. "Our disciplined and consistent performance.....Complete Story

"Precision Drilling Chief Neveu Sees Slow Summer"
Precision Drilling Trust, Canada’s largest oil well driller, is bracing for a continuation of a slump caused by low commodity prices. “It looks like a lousy summer for drilling,” Chief Executive officer Kevin Neveu said at a conference in Toronto. “The only difference between this downturn and other downturns is customers are running through their contracts.” Precision has about 18 rigs that are idle and fully paid for under contracts, Neveu told analysts at the Raymond James Oilfield Services conference.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Sets New Six Month High


July crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. As I write we are trading above 1st resistance at a new six month high, a 40% increase just this year.

Most professional traders will tell you that there is no reason for us to be trading crude at these levels but yet they are buying the dips every chance we get.

I am not sure it matters but traders will be watching the OPEC gathering this week where most traders expect OPEC leaders to hold production steady.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.53 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 61.54

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 63.45
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 59.53
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.52

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated above the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 79.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.27
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 79.80

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

For today I believe most day traders are seeing bullish set ups easily taking us from above our pivot point to 915. Beyond that we do have an unfilled gap at 924.75 that the bulls could have in their sights if buyers step into this market.

If June extends this week's rally, last week's high crossing at 923.20 then this month's high crossing at 929.00 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 899

First resistance is last week's high crossing at 923.20
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 929.00

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 877.00
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 875.40

The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.70 points. at 910.40 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

30,000 Members Can’t Be Wrong

It’s crucial in these trying economic times to stretch every penny you spend to grow your trading knowledge. Some companies charge thousands for products and services that are only meant to tease members into buying the next product or service.

INO TV is the only place where over 30,000 members have access to over 150 experts and 500 hours of seminars, for one price. INO TV gives members access to massive amounts of educational material that has been handpicked to provide you with the most for the least. If you’ve been duped in the past, here is your way to get back at those companies, learn something and stretch your pay check!

Find out what makes INO TV the right place for you.



~

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Extending This Spring's Rally


July crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.42 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 62.50
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is today's low crossing at 59.53
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.42

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.67 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.51
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.67

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 910.90
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is today's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Oil Rises On Consumer Confidence Report, Majors Switching Strategy


"Oil Rises to Six Month High as U.S. Consumer Confidence Gains"
Crude oil rose to a six month high after a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since September, signaling demand may rebound. Oil followed gains in the stock market after the Conference Board’s sentiment index surged to 54.9, more than forecast and the biggest increase since 2003, the New York based research group said today. Oil futures declined earlier on speculation OPEC will maintain production quotas at a meeting this week. “History shows that a jump in consumer confidence signals an economic rebound,” said Bill O’Grady, chief markets strategist at Confluence Investment.....Complete Story

"Switching Horses On Oil Strategy"
Thunder Horse turns 10 next month. BP's billion barrel oil field, discovered in 1999 in the Gulf of Mexico, is a source of pride. It also is a reminder of what ails the oil majors. Thunder Horse, which started up in 2008, will provide 42% of BP's incremental upstream production over the next three years, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase. Unfortunately, it is also one of BP's few discoveries of such scale in recent memory. Neil McMahon of Sanford C. Bernstein calculates that less than half of BP's additions to reserves over the past five years have come through its exploration efforts.....Complete Story

"Hottest Oil Options Show 18% Drop as Demand Falls"
After oil passed $60 a barrel for the first time in six months, the New York Mercantile Exchange’s fastest growing options trade in July is for a 18 percent drop.The number of options to sell oil at $50 a barrel for July settlement rose 22 percent last week to 24,948. Traders expect prices to fall because U.S. crude inventories are 1.8 percent below the highest level in two decades, the International Energy Agency says demand is falling the most since 1981, and there’s enough unsold crude stored in offshore tankers to supply the U.S. for a week. Oil traded as high as $62.16 today.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Struggles To Continue It's Rally


July crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near.

It seems that most day traders are looking for any excuse to buy the dips and continue going long this market. But with commercials increasing their short position's at a sharp pace the crude oil rally may not be sustainable.

We will continue to watch the SP 500 as it struggles to stay above key trading levels [876-880] and the U.S. Dollar as it appears to be responding to geo-political events. Both are the biggest threats to crude oil bulls at this point.

At this point it looks like natural gas will test it's lows of 3.25 and will continue to try to drag crude oil down with it.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.29 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If crude oil could extend this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 61.42

1st resistance is 61.95
2nd resistance is 62.70
3rd resistance is 63.23

1st support is 60.67
2nd support is 60.14
3rd support is 59.39

The weekly pivot is 60.23

==================================================================================

The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated above the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 79.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.70 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.56
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.70

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 79.80

==================================================================================

The SP 500 traded lower Monday evening and it appears most traders are looking for this market to go lower. Volume is generally low on these "1st day after the holiday" days, but we could creep right through the critical levels, 874-880. The U.S. Dollar looks to be in charge as it is reacting to news out of North Korea.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If traders take this market through the 874 support level there is little resistance keeping us from trading the 820 area.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 888

1st resistance is 893.50
2nd resistance is 902

1st support is 880
2nd support is 874

The weekly pivot point is 894.25

1st weekly resistance is 912.25
1st weekly support is 865.50

The June S&P 500 Index was down 7.60 points. at 877.30 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Monday, May 25, 2009

Oil Above $50 Saves Gulf States, Crude Oil Declines on Speculation Rally May Be Unsustainable


"Oil Above $50 Saves Gulf States During Crisis"
While their biggest customers may continue to wallow in recession into 2010, the oil producing nations of the Persian Gulf are again luring foreign investment and looking for places to park their own wealth. Crude prices that have stabilized above $50 a barrel mean the Middle East’s oil rich economies are likely to pull out of the global financial crisis sooner than the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy and the world’s biggest oil exporter, is attracting renewed interest from investors including leveraged-buyout firm KKR & Co. Qatar and Abu Dhabi have returned to international capital markets.....Complete Story


"PetroChina To Buy 45.5 Per Cent Stake in SPC For $1 Billion"
PetroChina, the world's second most valuable oil and gas company after Exxon Mobil Corp yesterday said it was buying a 45.5-per cent stake in oil refiner Singapore Petroleum Company (SPC) for S$1.47 billion ($1.02 billion). The agreement was signed between PetroChina's indirectly wholly owned subsidiary, PetroChina International (Singapore) Pte Ltd, and Keppel Oil and Gas Services Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Singapore based Keppel Corporation Limited, which is part owned by Singapore investment company Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd.....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Declines on Speculation Rally May Be Unsustainable"
Crude oil futures fell, extending their decline on concern that this year’s 37 percent rally is unsustainable because of sluggish demand brought on by the recession and a stronger dollar. The U.S. currency rose against the euro after North Korea said it conducted “successful” nuclear weapons test today, spurring demand for the relative safety of the dollar and reducing the attractiveness of commodities as an inflation hedge. “Oil’s rally above $60 a barrel was helped by positive equity markets and a weaker dollar, while the supply-demand balance provides a very different picture.....Complete Story

Friday, May 22, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Higher On Friday, Sets The Stage For Higher Open On Tuesday


July crude oil closed higher on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 61.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 62.26
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 59.88
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 57.37

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The June Dollar closed lower on Friday and below December's low crossing at 80.20. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.99
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22

First support is today's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY! Click Here

The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Friday as it extended Thursday's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 862.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 896.88 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 896.88
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 878.00
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

MarketClub Alerts Click Here

Crude Oil Rises As Dollar Continues To Show Weakness


"Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Drops Against Euro, Equities Gain"
Crude oil rose as the dollar fell to a four month low against the euro and the U.S. stocks increased for the first time in four days. Oil rose as much as 1.5 percent in New York after the dollar dipped against major currencies on speculation the U.S. may lose its AAA credit rating. Equities gained as unexpected profit at Sears Holdings Corp. overshadowed concern the government faces higher interest rates to finance the rescue of the financial industry......Complete Story

USO & Crude Oil On The Move Click Here

"Oil Market Turns to OPEC Advantage, But Pitfalls Abound"
Global oil markets have turned in OPEC's favor after months of drilling a hole in the cartel's coffers, but internal wrangling in the producer group could still cap recent oil price gains. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' deep production cuts over the past five months are beginning to whittle down a mountain of excess supply. World crude demand appears to be stabilizing and will get a top up with the start of the.....Complete Story

Is the Dollar in Trouble? Click Here

"Venezuela Oil Keeps Luring Bidders in Bets Chavez Isn’t Forever"
Chevron Corp. and Total SA are pursuing new Venezuelan oil projects after President Hugo Chavez tore up past agreements, seized assets of contractors and expelled producers that wouldn’t accept new terms. The strategy, producers and analysts say, is to tap crude reserves that Chavez touts as the world’s largest. Decisions to push ahead under a regime whose leader vows to “bury capitalism” are bets that the companies can buy enough time to outlast Chavez, said Peter Zeihan, a vice president at Stratfor, a geopolitical.....Complete Story

Weak U.S. Dollar Continues To Support Crude Oil Bulls


Thursday's sell off in crude yesterday seemed to be led by weakness in the equity markets in reaction to warnings that the UK could lose its AAA rating, increasing demand concerns about the global economy going forward. The decline was tempered by the energy sector getting a boost from a weak US dollar that set multi month lows against the Euro.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 57.37 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

I expect day traders trading the long side to pour in around the 59.90 area "if" we have any pull back at all today. That's a big if as the dollar continues to weaken this morning.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 60.95

1st resistance is 61.97
2nd resistance is 62.90
3rd resistance is 63.92

1st support is 60.02
2nd support is 59.00
3rd support is 58.07



The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline and spiked below December's low crossing at 80.25. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, last September's low crossing at 76.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.23 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.02
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.23

First support is the overnight low crossing at 80.20
Second support is last September's low crossing at 76.91

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Down, Bulls Still Have The Near Term Advantage


July crude oil closed down $1.03 at $61.00 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today and were pressured on profit taking and a lower U.S. stock market. Bulls still have the near term technical advantage. A four week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

July natural gas closed down 36.1 cents at $3.737 today. Prices closed near the session low, hit a fresh two week low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. A bearish weekly gas storage report today pressured natural gas. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and regained downside momentum today.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 47 points at 80.60 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh 4 1/2 month low again today. Prices are still in a 10 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and have gained more strength this week.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today. The indexes were pressured by a bearish weekly jobless claims report and by news that the U.K.'s credit rating has been lowered. Don't look for keen buying interest on Friday, ahead of a long holiday weekend in the U.S. Bulls should not become too confident in these still very troubled economic times.

Oil Falls On Fed Warning, Petrobras Expands Abroad, Biggest Drop In Natural Gas In Two Months


"Oil Falls From Six Month High After Fed Warning on U.S. Economy"
Crude oil dropped from a six-month high after the Federal Reserve cut its forecast for the economy of the U.S., the world’s biggest energy-consuming country. Oil fell after minutes of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting in April showed that policy makers see “significant downside risks” to the economic outlook. The price decrease accelerated after U.S. jobless claims topped forecasts. Daily fuel demand in the past four weeks declined 7.6 percent from a year earlier, an Energy Department report showed yesterday. “The Fed comments triggered liquidation as we came in today,” said Gene McGillian.....Complete Story

Why is INO TV is the Logical Choice? Click Here

"Brazil's Lula Sees Petrobras Furthering Investments Abroad"
Brazilian state-run energy giant Petrobras (PBR) shouldn't be afraid to make investments overseas, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Thursday during a visit to Turkey. "[Overseas investments] will help the company have more access to sources of oil," Lula was quoted by the local Estado news agency as saying. "Gasoline prices, which are already cheap in Brazil, could become even cheaper [with more overseas exploration]." Petrobras will sign an exploration deal with the Turkish Petroleum Corp., or TPAO, Friday. The deal will cover exploration in the Black Sea, which Turkey.....Complete Story

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

"Natural Gas Drops Most in 2 Months as Supply Gains in Recession"
Natural gas futures fell the most in eight weeks after a government report showed a bigger than forecast increase in U.S. inventories, as the recession cuts demand for the industrial fuel. Stockpiles rose 103 billion cubic feet last week to 2.116 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said. Analysts expected a gain of 95 billion. Supplies were 22 percent higher than the five-year average as factories and power plants trimmed purchases during the worst economic slowdown in a half century.
“This number surprised everyone it appears, so there’s a violent reaction,” said Brad Florer.....Complete Story


Crude Oil Lower As Markets React To Continous Job Claims


Crude oil traded lower overnight as most professional traders are looking for an over due retracement. We are still in a strong uptrend but it is apparent we have made a short term top. I look for bullish day traders to make a stand in the 60.50 - 61 area so watch volume closely as we trade through here, bears will start take profits in the 59+ area.

We will be watching the SP 500 closely as any move below 895.50 will have day traders trading the gap fill to 882.50, most likely taking crude oil with it.

Natural gas seems to be making a test of the 50 and 61.8% retracement lines which will only add to the crude oil sell off. This could be healthy for the bulls case if these levels can hold.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 61.27

1st resistance is 62.67
2nd resistance is 63.67

1st support is 60.27
2nd support is 58.87

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Near Session High, Hit's New Six Month High


July crude oil closed up $2.05 at $62.15 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh six month high. A lower U.S. dollar is supporting buying interest in crude. Bulls have the near term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today. A four week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

July unleaded gasoline closed up 98 points at $1.7853 today. Prices closed near the session low after hitting a fresh six month high early on today. Bulls have upside technical momentum.

July natural gas closed up 7.9 cents at $4.109 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and were supported on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the near term technical advantage.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 95 points at 81.10 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh 4 1/2 month low today. Prices are still in a 10 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and gained more strength today.

Oil Prices Rise On Supply Decline, Morgan Stanley Trader Banned


"Oil Rises Above $62 on Larger Than Forecast U.S. Supply Decline"
Crude oil rose above $62 a barrel for the first time in six months after a government report showed that U.S. inventories declined more than forecast. Stockpiles dropped 2.11 million barrels to 368.5 million in the week ended May 15, the Energy Department said today. A 400,000-barrel decline was forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Prices also climbed after refinery fires and unrest in Nigeria threatened supplies and the falling dollar spurred investors to purchase raw materials.

“We’re off to the races,” said Rick Mueller, a director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “The crude and gasoline inventory drops are very supportive to the market. The problems in Nigeria and refinery disruptions are contributing to the rally.....Complete Story

"Valero Energy Agrees to Acquire Interest in European Refining Assets"
Valero Energy Corporation has entered into an agreement to acquire The Dow Chemical Company's 45% interest in the Total Raffinaderij Nederland N.V. (TRN) for an enterprise value expected to be approximately $725 million, including working capital and inventories. TRN owns a crude oil refinery located in the Zeeland region of The Netherlands on the river Scheldt and has total throughput capacity of 190,000 barrels per day.

The transaction is subject to regulatory approval as well as a right-of-first refusal held by Total S.A., the refinery operator and owner of the remaining 55% interest in TRN. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2009.
Originally built in 1973, TRN's refinery received major upgrades in the mid-1980s, mid-1990s, and.....Complete Story

"Ex Morgan Stanley Trader Banned for Hiding Position"
A former oil trader at Morgan Stanley in London, who shorted oil futures without permission after an alcohol-fuelled lunch, has been banned by Britain’s financial regulator for trying to conceal his trades, the second time in a week it took action against one of the bank’s employees.

The Financial Services Authority banned David Connor Redmond, a former trader on the freight desk of Morgan Stanley’s commodities division, the regulator said today in a statement. Redmond built a “substantial” short position in WTI Futures on the ICE Futures Web-based trading platform in February 2008, concealing the position overnight and exposing Morgan Stanley to “the risk of incurring a significant loss,” the FSA said.....Complete Story

Lower Costs Give Crude Oil Drillers Some Breathing Room

A long awaited drop in the cost of drilling and maintaining wells has finally materialized, easing the pressure on oil and natural gas producers whose profits are being squeezed by lower prices.

Executives at the companies that own and develop fields complained for months that as tumbling energy prices ate into revenue, margins were being hurt by the stubbornly high cost of materials, labor and drilling services needed to get oil and gas out of the ground. In recent weeks, that has finally begun to change.

Lower costs, along with a modest rebound in oil prices to more than $55 a barrel, helped several companies deliver better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter.
Complete Story

Futures Prices Click Here

Crude Oil Overbought, Signals Still Turning Bullish


July crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 56.37 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 60.12

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 60.99
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 56.74
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 54.37

Search for YOUR Symbol Click Here

The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but turning bearish again signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 81.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.77 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.33
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.77

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 81.97
Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 81.49

MarketClub Alerts Click Here

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 902.68. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 929.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

I look for the day trading bulls to flood in on any pull back into the 895-899 range, selling into the pivot point before the end of the day,

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 909

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 915.80
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 929.00

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 902.68
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 875.40

The June S&P 500 Index was up 2.50 points. at 909.00 as of 5:55 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

10:30 AM Eastern Time

US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 370.6M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -4.7%)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 208.3M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1.2M; previous -4.1%)

Distillate Stocks (previous 147.5M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected 700K; previous +1%)

Refinery Usage (expected 84%; previous 83.7%)

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Weaker U.S. Dollar Supports Crude Oil Uptrend


June crude oil closed up $0.62 at $59.65 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today and did hit a fresh 5 1/2 month high. A weaker U.S. dollar is supporting buying interest in crude. Bulls have the near term technical advantage. A four week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

June natural gas closed down 19.0 cents at $3.949 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and are regaining downside momentum.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 72 points at 82.03 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a fresh 4 1/2 month low today. Prices are still in a 10 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage and gained more strength today.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today after solid gains posted on Monday. Bulls still have some fresh upside near-term technical momentum. Bears are anticipating the "sell in May and go away" phenomenon that has occurred in the past. However, the recent rally in stocks has surprised most with its resilience. Too many analysts expecting a downturn has actually prolonged the rally.


Crude Oil Fluctuates Along With Equities, Supply May Decline

Crude oil futures fluctuated along with the stock market and on speculation that a government report tomorrow will show U.S. stockpiles and demand dropped. Oil and U.S. equities swung between gains and losses as housing starts unexpectedly dropped to an all time low. Crude oil stockpiles probably dropped 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey conducted before an Energy Department report tomorrow. “A lot of oil traders are looking at equity markets for a signal of what the economy and demand picture will look like in the months ahead,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with.....Complete Story


ShareThis