Thursday, January 14, 2010

Crude Oil Bulls Forced to Defend 78.83 on Friday


Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83 would open the door for a larger degree decline during January. If February renews this winter's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.40
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.95

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.37

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday ending a two day short covering bounce off Tuesday's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a pause in this month's decline is possible.

Closes above today's high crossing at 5.804 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If February extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.804
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 6.108

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.54
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

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