Friday, January 15, 2010

Crude Oil Finishes Week Below 20 Day Moving Average, Lower Prices Likely


Crude oil closed lower on Friday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.99 as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If February extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 77.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.21 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.99
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.21

First support is today's low crossing at 77.70
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 77.41

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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that additional short covering is possible near term.

Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 5.804 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If February extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 5.804
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 6.108

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.47
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

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