Friday, January 29, 2010

Crude Oil Low Range Close Sets The Stage For Lower Open on Monday


Crude oil closed lower on Friday and spiked below support marked by December's low crossing at 72.45. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends today's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74. First support is today's low crossing at 72.43. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday and tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.560 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.456. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.060. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.48. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98.

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