Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and U.S Dollar Commentary For Wednesday Evening


Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday evening is 73.83

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.94
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.40

First support is today's low crossing at 72.65
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday and below trading range support crossing at 5.327. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.622 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday evening is 5.280

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.559

First support is today's low crossing at 5.182
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.01
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.05
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of the U.S. Dollar ETF UUP

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4 comments:

Mike K said...

Sorry, new to Technicals... what happens if crude hits its "pivot point?"

Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader said...

A technical indicator derived by calculating the numerical average of a particular stock's high, low and closing prices.

The pivot point is used as a predictive indicator. If the following day's market price falls below the pivot point, it may be used as a new resistance level. Conversely, if the market price rises above the pivot point, it may act as the new support level.

Hope this helps!
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

Mike K said...

Cool, so the pivot point is a possible resistance level now (LS 73.60). Thanks a lot, good blog.

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