Thursday, February 25, 2010

Crude Oil Signals Show Overbought Condition, Do we Have a Top?


Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top is in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.80 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May resumes this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target.

Thursday evenings pivot point, our line in the sand is 78.58

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.15
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63

First support is today's low crossing at 77.44
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.80

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday and tested the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.819. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 4.656 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.272 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday evening is 4.811

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.167
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.272

First support is today's low crossing at 4.808
Second support is December's low crossing at 4.656

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.23 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.23
Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 80.15

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of the U.S. Dollar ETF UUP

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