Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Crude Oil Surges on Consolidation in the U.S. Dollar


Crude oil was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, last September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand 71.68

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.72

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is last September's low crossing at 67.46

Make Sure You Understand the "Super Cycle" in Gold

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.356 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 5.499

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.680
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.356
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.227

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.79 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.72
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.79

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