Monday, April 26, 2010

Crude Oil Closes Below 20 Day, Signals Still Give Bulls The Advantage


Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.97. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last Friday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 87.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's high crossing at 81.73 would open the door for a larger degree decline into early May. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 85.19. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.26. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 81.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 81.18.

Natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.421 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this month's trading range. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.421. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.4438. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.967. Second support is the early April low crossing at 3.914.

Gold closed slightly lower due to profit taking on Monday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1148.40. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 1184.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 1124.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1160.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1170.70. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1148.40. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1142.00.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 82.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.07 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 82.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.22. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.07.



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