Monday, April 19, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday

Crude oil dives to as low as 80.53 today and further decline is still in favor. As discussed before, rise fro 69.50 should be over after hitting 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 87.00. Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 87.09 at 80.37 will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 76.22 and below. On the upside, above 83.35 will flip intraday bias back to the upside and put focus back to 87.09 high instead.

In the bigger picture, note again that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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