Friday, April 23, 2010

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Friday Morning


Crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends Monday's decline, the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 81.18 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.26 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.73. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.26. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 81.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 81.18.

Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. May appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle off the early April high. Closes above 4.269 or below 3.879 are needed to confirm a breakout of this consolidation pattern and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing 4.269. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.879. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.810.

Gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1139.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1139.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 1184.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1147.90. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1170.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1124.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1102.40.

The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 82.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.23. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.00.

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