Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary low should be in place at 69.27 after crude oil hit 69.50 key support. Intraday bias is turned neutral and stronger recovery might be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 75.17). But upside should be limited below 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 69.27 at 80.32 and bring fall resumption. Below 69.27 will target 38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 66.54 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 68.59/69.50 key support zone support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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