Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, crude oil's recovery might be completed already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 64.24 low first. Break will confirm decline resumption for 60 psychological level next, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. On the upside, in case of another recovery, we'd expect strongly resistance at 38.2% retracement of 87.15 to 64.24 at 72.99 to limit upside and bring fall resumption finally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Your keyword.

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