Thursday, May 20, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Crude recovers mildly after dropping to as low as 67.90 and downside momentum is seen diminishing with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor with 72.52 minor support intact, towards 38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 66.54 next. On the upside, though, note that break of 72.52 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. on the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall fro 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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