Friday, May 14, 2010

Market Ends Week on a Down Note, Now What?

From guest blogger Kevin Kiefer of Ticker House.Com.....

Well folks, this week was pretty easy to call what would happen. We told you on Monday that we were being careful the rest of the week and that you shouldn't buy after that huge rally. We wanted to fill in that gap on the SPY chart before we got less bearish. Today, we have mostly filled in that gap. While you don't have to be a hero and buy stocks at the lows today, we don't see much more downside from here. We have good support at 1125, 1110 and the 200 day currently at 1100. We still think the market will not trade straight up from here but we do see the following things happening next week.

1) The stock market will finish next week at least slightly higher.
2) Oil/copper will finish the week higher.
3) US Treasury bills and the VIX will finish the week lower.
4) Gold will finish the week lower.

I didn't want to make a call on what will happen Monday but I am confident enough to call those four things. Of course, things can change and we'll keep you updated next week. It's possible we drift lower and retest the 200 day which is about 2% lower from here. However, I think that we have more of a chance of bottoming out today. My trade for next week is CELG which currently is in the green today. Celgene could be setting up for a decent bounce next week. If you want to read about the fundamental case for CELG, read the article that I wrote a few weeks back below. Take a look at Tuesday's article below to see the gap on the SPY we were talking about. Compare it to the chart of the SPY as of 2:10 pm today below this article. To sum things up, we think we are bottoming today but let's wait to see what happens early next week. If you want to buy a stock, I'd recommend CELG. It's chart looks good and it's not connected to the overall economy so it's more defensive.

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