Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Below the Key 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.40. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94. First support is today's low crossing at 75.21. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Today's close below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727 confirms that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884. First support is today's low crossing at 4.525. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.97 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.97. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1243.50. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is today's low crossing at 1227.60. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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