Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Bulls Maintain Slight Advantage

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.23. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.30.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.908 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.694 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.691. Second support is today's low crossing at 4.691.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.24 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.81. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.24. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed lower on Tuesday confirming Monday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1228.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1231.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1228.30.

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