Thursday, June 24, 2010

Crude Oil Extends Decline Below the 10 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.37. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.98. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.691 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.930 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.930. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.691. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.628.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.13 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.50 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.50. Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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