Friday, June 4, 2010

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.16. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.72. First support is today's low crossing at 70.79. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends Thursday's breakout above the upper boundary of the April-May trading range crossing at 4.433. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.326 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.977. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.326. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.217.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday breaking out to the topside of the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, the March 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 85.33 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 88.33. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 85.33.

Gold closed higher on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 1251.40 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing at 1198.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1230.60. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1251.40. First support is today's low crossing at 1198.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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