Friday, June 11, 2010

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 69.51 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 76.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.444 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.635. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.444.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday due to short covering but remains below the 10 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01. Second support is today's low crossing at 86.77.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday and closed above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1225.80. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this spring's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1216.10. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.

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