Saturday, June 26, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday June 26th

Crude oil's retreat was shallow and was contained 75.17. Subsequent rally indicates that rise from 64.23 is not over yet and has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 80.53 next. Break will target a retest on 87.15 high. On the downside, though, break of 75.17 will argue that rebound from 64.23 is completed and will turn bias back to the downside for 69.51 support first.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 64.24 dampened our bearish view and we'll stay neutral first. But still, rise from 64.24 looks corrective in nature and favors another fall after completion. A break of 69.51 support will indicate that rebound from 64.24 is finished and revive the bearish case. That is, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. In such case, we'd see another fall to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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