Thursday, July 1, 2010

Crude Oil Closes Sharply Lower, Posting a New Three Week Low

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday and posted a new three week low as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.88 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.29. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.88. First support is today's low crossing at 72.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed sharply higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.876 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.876. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.249. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.


The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed this month's decline below the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Despite today's decline, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.79 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.79. First support is today's low crossing at 84.96. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed sharply lower on Thursday and below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1263.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1198.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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