Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and U.S. Dollar Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.24 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.65. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.24. First support is today's low crossing at 71.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed steady on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.855 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.855. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.249. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.15 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 85.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.15. First support is today's low crossing at 84.04. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1233.70 would signal that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1231.00. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. First support is today's low crossing at 1189.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90.

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