Saturday, July 31, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday July 31st

Crude oil edged higher to 79.69 initially last week but retreated sharply. Nevertheless, the retreat was contained at 75.90 and rebounded. Near term outlook is mixed and we'll stay neutral first. on the upside, break of 79.69 will indicate that whole rebound from 64.23 is still in progress for 61.8% projection of 64.23 to 79.38 from 71.09 at 80.45 next. On the downside, break of 75.90 will revive the case that crude oil has topped out at 79.69 already and will flip bias back to the downside for 71.09 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 64.23 is a correction to fall from 87.15 only. Hence, even in case of further rally, we'd expect strong resistance below 87.15 high and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 71.09 will be the first signal that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for another low below 64.23 towards 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts.

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