Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Phil Flynn: Oh No, Not Again

I’d like to tell you that the supply report from the American Petroleum Institute matters and that we could go back to find love and happiness continuing to scalp oil in its very defined trading range. I would even like to tell you that todays Energy Information Agency report is going to matter as well. Yet the threat to our little trading range nirvana is being threatened by another potential storm down in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center now shows that a tropical wave that we have been watching now has about a 70% chance to biome a hurricane and play havoc with production and imports into the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC says that “STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FORTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUETO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND LIKELY AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.”

So there is a possibility that oil and other petroleum products may put in some hurricane premium. The Natural gas seems less worried as on shore production is rising and supplies are ample. Yet we cannot be complacent. The API showed less than exciting numbers showing crude down 241,000 barrels gas down 412,000 barrels and distillates rising by 241000 barrels. Of Course oil may also take its cue from Big Ben and no that is not the name of a hurricane but our name trusty Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Because oil has had a tendency to live and die with the fortunes of the stock market his words may inspire us. Of course the focus may be on the report that a few Fed Banks were pushed for a discount rate increase in an attempt to get credit flowing from banks too scared to lend money. If Ben says that he is considering this oil and stocks should get a quick boost.

Despite the storm threat we still feel oil will be locked in the twilight zone. Not really bearish and not really bullish. Call Phil for the best way to trade it and get signed up for a trial of his daily numbers. Jut call him at 800-935-6487 or email him at pflynn@pfgbest.com


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