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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday August 28th

Crude oil dropped to as low as 70.76 last week but was supported by 71.09 support and rebounded. As short term bottom should be in place with bullish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. More recovery would likely be seen in near term. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement at 78.31 and bring fall resumption. As discussed before, decisive break of 71.09 support will confirm our bearish view that whole rebound from 64.23 is finished at 82.97 already and target another low below 64.23.

In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Decisive break of 71.09 will confirm this case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 82.97 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, daily, weekly and monthly Charts.


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