Monday, August 16, 2010

Markets Begin The Dog Days of August, Crude Oil Closes Near Session Low

The U.S. stock indexes closed narrowly mixed today. As we are into the "dog days" of August, when trading volume typically declines, I do not look for strong trending price action in the stock indexes in the near term. Come early September, look for trading volumes and volatility to pick up significantly.

Crude oil closed down $0.19 at $75.20 a barrel today. Prices again closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh five week low. Bulls have faded badly to suggest a near term market top is in place. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above psychological resistance at $80.00 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 10.1 cents at $4.227 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 11 week low. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. A two month old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.70.

Gold futures closed up $9.60 at $1,226.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh six week high today. Bulls have gained upside near term technical momentum recently, including more today. The gold market has seen safe haven buying interest recently as investor risk appetite has shrunk. The U.S. dollar index was lower today, which also helped out the gold market bulls. Gold prices are in a three week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 44 points at 82.59 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a corrective pullback from recent gains. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 84.00.

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