Thursday, September 9, 2010

EIA Cuts OPEC Oil Earnings Forecast $21 Billion in 2010, $16 in 2011

The US Energy Information Administration has slashed its forecast of oil producer club OPEC's oil export earnings by $21 billion this year and by $16 billion in 2011. The agency now sees OPEC earning $731 billion in 2010 compared with its previous forecast of $752 billion a month ago. For 2011, it is forecasting that OPEC will earn $805 billion compared with the $821 billion projected a month ago.

The EIA, statistics arm of the Department of Energy, bases its forecasts on price and production projections from its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook. The agency forecast on Wednesday in its latest STEO that the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude would average $77.37/barrel in 2010 and $82/b in 2011. In its previous Outlook, released in August, the EIA projected an average WTI price of $79.13/b in 2010 and $83.50/b in 2011.

At the same time, the EIA lowered its forecasts of OPEC crude production in both 2010 and 2011. It sees the 12 member group producing 29.37 million b/d this year, 110,000 b/d less than previously forecast, and 29.89 million b/d in 2011, 140,000 b/d less than previously forecast.
The EIA estimated OPEC's 2009 earnings at $571 billion. OPEC's Vienna secretariat said in its annual statistical bulletin in July that the group collectively earned $575.3 billion from crude exports in 2009, down 43% from $1.002 trillion in 2008.

From Platts .Com


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