Monday, September 20, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher, near the session highs and hit multi week highs today. Bulls have gained good upside near term technical momentum recently as the bulls have "climbed a wall of worry." While the months of September and October have been historically unkind to the stock market bulls, the indexes are getting through the month of September in good shape, so far. My bias is that if there were to be serious market stock market turbulence during the months of September and October, it would have most likely occurred in early September.

Crude oil closed up $1.10 at $74.76 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering. Bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $78.04 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 19.1 cents at $3.833 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears still have the overall near term technical advantage and regained some downside momentum today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $4.144.

Gold futures closed up $3.60 at $1,281.10 today. Prices closed near mid range today and did poke to another fresh contract and all time record high today. A weaker U.S. dollar index today helped to boost gold. The fact that volatility in the gold market has not increased significantly with prices now in uncharted territory is a bullish clue and suggests the modest uptrend in prices can continue. Gold bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 3 points at 81.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.31.

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