Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Wednesday Evening Sept. 29th

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. The indexes earlier this week hit fresh multi month highs. Bulls still have upside near term technical momentum. We are half way through the historically bearish period from September to October, and the stock indexes have so far performed very well. It is my bias that if this autumn were to see serious market turbulence, it would likely have occurred during September. I would not be surprised to see the stock indexes rally during October and then trade sideways and choppy into the end of the year.

Crude oil closed up $1.53 at $77.71 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today following a bullish weekly U.S. stocks report. Bulls have gained the near term technical advantage in crude. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $78.86 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 1.4 cents at $3.965 today. Prices closed near the session high today in quiet trading and saw more tepid short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.298.

Gold futures closed up $3.20 at $1,311.60 today. Prices today closed near mid range today and scored another fresh record high. A weaker U.S. dollar and more safe haven buying interest boosted gold again today. Gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand in the gold market. Prices are in a two month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 23 points at 78.97 today. Prices closed near mid range today and hit another fresh eight month low. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 81.00.

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