Thursday, September 23, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Summary For Wednesday Evening

The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1097.04 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1152.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1143.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1152.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1117.90. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1097.04.

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If November extends the decline off last week's high, August's low crossing at 71.49 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 78.86 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.19. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 78.86. First support today's low crossing at 73.58. Second support is August's low crossing at 71.49.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday however, profit taking tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends last week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 4.321 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 3.806 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.060. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 4.321. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.806. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.697.

Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near term. Upside targets will now be hard to project as it extends this year's rally. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1260.06 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1298.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1272.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1260.06.

The U.S. Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 78.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.20 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.39. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.77. Second support is the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 78.66.

Watch "How To Use Fibonacci Retracements"

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