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Monday, October 4, 2010

Bloomberg Analysis: Crude Oil to Hit Resistance Level at $86.70 This Week

Crude oil may fail to breach the $86.70 a barrel level this week based on statistical analysis used by traders to gauge prices, the Schork Group Inc. said. Crude’s resistance at that level corresponds to the upper limit of the confidence interval, a statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the boundaries. Oil is most likely to trade this week between $76.76 a barrel and $86.70, according to the Schork Group.

Oil prices have jumped 4.7 percent since Sept. 29 to $81.53 today as signs of positive economic growth in the U.S. and China improve the outlook for fuel demand. Crude’s gains may sputter to a halt as prices climb to highs reached earlier this year in April and May. “Prices will hit serious resistance in any attempt to cross the $86.70 barrier,” said Schork Group President Stephen Schork. Oil climbed to this year’s highest close at $86.84 on April 6 and reached $86.19 on May 3, followed by sell offs below $70, he said.

The November contract was at $81.52 a barrel, down 6 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:54 a.m. Singapore time after reaching $81.87. It surged $1.61 to settle at $81.58 on Oct. 1, the highest close since Aug. 5, capping the biggest weekly gain since February. “The bulls should have enough momentum to hold prices close to either side of the $80 barrier, thus we expect prices to trade safely inside our confidence interval,” the Schork Group said.

Reporter Christian Schmollinger can be contacted at

Courtesy Bloomberg News

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