Saturday, October 30, 2010

Oil N'Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Oct. 30th

Crude oil continued to be bounded in choppy sideway trading between 79.25 and 84.45 last week. Outlook remains unchanged. With 78.04 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The consolidative price actions from 84.43 also suggests that recent rally is not over. An upside break out will be in favor. Though, in case of another rise, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal inside resistance zone of 82.97/87.15. On the downside, break of 78.04 support will indicate that rise from 70.76 is over and deeper decline should be seen to retest this support level first.

In the bigger picture, after all, we're still favoring the case that medium term rally from 33.2 is already completed at 87.15. Recovery from 64.23 is treated as a correction and should be near to completion, if not finished. Even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15 and bring reversal. We're still expecting another fall to 60 psychological level (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18). However, decisive break of 87.15 will put focus on long term fibo level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Price actions from 147.27 are treated as consolidation in the larger up trend and with 90.24 fibo resistance intact, a test of 33.2 eventually is in favor. Though, decisive break of 90.24 will bring stronger rally to above 100 psychological level as a relatively powerful second wave of the consolidation continues.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts.


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