Friday, October 22, 2010

Phil Flynn: Project China

In futures, one day you are in and the next day you are out. Oil traders wanted data from China to wow them but that failed. The oil bulls have all of their hopes and aspirations tied up into expectations of strong China demand and when they fail to blow us away, well the bulls have to leave the runway.

China GDP number just barely met or exceeded market expectations and for a market that lives or dies on China surprising us, it just was not enough. It bored us. At the same time in the aftermath of the Chinese’s government increasing interest rates the higher than expected 3.6 percent rise in the Chinese Consumer Price index should increase the odds that we will see more moves by the Chinese to try to reign in what they are starting to see as an inflation problem.

Oil bulls also had to be dismayed by the fact that despite the fact that the Chinese imported a record amount of crude last month, it seems it went into storage as opposed to the refinery. Data from the China Mainland Marketing Research Company showed that China processed 8.5 million barrels of oil a day which according to Bloomberg News was the smallest increase since March of 2009. A sign that demand may already be......Read the entire article.

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