Thursday, November 4, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Thursday Evening Nov. 4th

The S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Thursday and above April's high crossing at 1203.00. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1178.68 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1215.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1187.12. Second support is the 2 day moving average crossing at 1178.68.

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.76 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.04. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.76.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. If December extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.207 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.187. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.207. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.500. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.390.

Gold soared sharply higher on Thursday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near term. If December extends the rally off last week's low, October's high crossing at 1388.10 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1303.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1384.80. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1388.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60. Second support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1303.50.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off this year's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 78.61 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.51. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.61. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.24. Second support is the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21.


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