Friday, November 12, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Friday Evening Nov. 12th

The S&P 500 index closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1192.06 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1224.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1192.09. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 90.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 88.63. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 90.82. First support is today's low crossing at 84.52. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.93.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 3.743 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.743. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500.

Gold sharply lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1360.70 would confirm that an important top has been posted. If December renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1424.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1360.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.48. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 78.61 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.51. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.61. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.24. Second support is the November 2009 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 74.21.




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