Monday, November 15, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening Nov. 15th

The S&P 500 index closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1193.25 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1224.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2009 decline crossing at 1234.75. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1193.26. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extended last Friday's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.97 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 90.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 88.63. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 90.82. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 84.52. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.97.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.743 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.743. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500.

Gold lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1360.00 would confirm that an important top has been posted. If December renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1424.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1360.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.40 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.77. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.40. Second support is this month's low crossing at 75.24.


Watch "What a Difference a Week Makes....Is It All Over For Gold?"

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