Thursday, November 18, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Thursday Evening Nov. 18th

The S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off last week's high, the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1201.82 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1201.82. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1224.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1175.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it rebounded off the 50% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 80.49. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off last week's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.05 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.04. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.05. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 80.06. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 78.56.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.743 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.710. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of decline off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near term. If December extends the decline off last week's high, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1377.50 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1361.40. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1377.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1329.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 79.59. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75. Second support is this month's low crossing at 75.24.


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