Monday, November 22, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening Nov. 22nd

The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's short covering rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1196.94 would temper the near term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off last week's high, the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1196.94. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1224.50. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1175.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed lower on Monday but remains above the 50% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 81.14. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January extends the decline off last week's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 79.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.56 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.56. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 89.10. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 80.06. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 79.24.

Natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.743 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.293. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.710. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500.


Gold closed higher on Monday as it extended the short covering rebound off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1369.00 would temper the near term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off this month's high, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1364.00. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1369.00. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1329.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday ending a three day correction off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 79.59. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87. Second support is this month's low crossing at 75.24.


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