Monday, November 29, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening Nov. 29th

The S&P 500 index closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1206.00 would temper the near term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off this month's high, the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1206.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1224.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1175.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extends last week's rebounds off the 50% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 81.14. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends today's rally, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.97 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 85.83 Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.97. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28.

Natural gas closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.206 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.515. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.206. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 1388.10 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1382.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1388.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1329.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 82.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.22. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 82.18. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.53. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47.


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