Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening Nov. 30th

The S&P 500 index closed lower on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December renews the decline off this month's high, the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1206.00 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1206.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1224.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1175.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.88 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 85.90 Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.88. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.211 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.515. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654. First support is today's low crossing at 4.126. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 1424.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1390.10. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1424.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1329.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 82.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.69 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 82.18. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.69.


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