Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities For Wednesday Evening Nov. 17th

The S&P 500 index closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off last week's high, the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1203.97 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1193.63. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1203.97. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1175.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and tested the 50% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 80.49. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off last week's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.98. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.53. First support is today's low crossing at 80.06. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 78.56.

Natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.743 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.362. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.710. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500.

Gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near term. If December extends the decline off last week's high, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1380.30 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1359.90. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1380.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1329.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.69 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 79.59. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 80.54. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.69. Second support is this month's low crossing at 75.24.


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