Sunday, December 5, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Dec. 5th

Crude oil's rise from 80.06 accelerated to as high as 89.49 last week and the break of 88.63 indicates that whole rally from 64.23 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for next near term target of 61.8% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 91.10. On the downside, below 87.14 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of 88.63 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and has resumed. Such rally is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27 and should target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70. On the downside, break of 80.06 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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